Solar Energy

While everyone in Australia receives approximately the same amount of daylight hours in a year, solar irradiance is higher as you go north.

Solar panels are sensitive to temperature and operate above ambient temperature. At higher temperatures, panels produce less electricity.

Coastal areas often have more cloud cover than inland areas which reduces solar energy production capacity. However panels still produce electricity on cloudy days.

Australian solar payback periods

The discussion below focuses on capital cities. For anywhere in Australia, find out your specific results with our System-ROI tool.

To maximise winter energy production, your solar panels should be tilted more than optimal. Request report if you'd like to know more.

Tip: if your property is exposed to significant shading, recommended solar system sizes should typically be increased.

ACT

ACT has relatively lower ROI's however solar still provides substantial savings

The optimal tilt for solar panels in Canberra is 35° from flat

5 year payback period for panels at 35° tilt and facing north

6 year payback period for panels that are horizontal (flat) and 8 years for vertical (wall mounted)

8 year payback period for panels facing due east or due west

Flat rate of 22 c/kWh assumed and offpeak-peak rates of 15-26 c/kWh for TOU customers

NSW

NSW has some of the cheapest costs for solar systems

The optimal tilt for solar panels Sydney is 34° from flat

5 year payback period for panels at 34° tilt and facing north

6 year payback period for panels that are horizontal (flat) and 7 years for vertical (wall mounted)

7 year payback period for panels facing due east or due west

Flat rate of 23 c/kWh assumed and offpeak-peak rates of 17-42 c/kWh for TOU customers

NT

NT has generous grid feed-in tariffs and high levels of solar irradiance

The optimal tilt for solar panels in Darwin is 12° from flat

4 year payback period for panels at 12° tilt and facing north

4 year payback period for panels that are horizontal (flat) and 9 years for vertical (wall mounted)

4 year payback period for panels facing due east or due west

Flat rate of 24 c/kWh assumed and offpeak-peak rates of 22-29 c/kWh for TOU customers

QLD

QLD has some of the highest rates of solar irradiance in the world

The optimal tilt for solar panels in Brisbane is 28° from flat

4 year payback period for panels at 28° tilt and facing north

5 year payback period for panels that are horizontal (flat) and 7 years for vertical (wall mounted)

6 year payback period for panels facing due east or due west

Flat rate of 26 c/kWh assumed and offpeak-peak rates of 19-34 c/kWh for TOU customers

SA

SA has some of the highest returns on investment from solar nationally due to high electricity costs from the grid

The optimal tilt for solar panels in Adelaide is 35°

4 year payback period for panels at 35° tilt and facing north

4 year payback period for panels that are horizontal (flat) and 5 years for vertical (wall mounted)

5 year payback period for panels facing due east or due west

Flat rate of 33 c/kWh assumed and offpeak-peak rates of 20-39 c/kWh for TOU customers

TAS

TAS has lower rates of solar irradiance however low panel operating temperatures yields efficient production

Optimally orientated panel in Hobart produce 88% of the electricity they would in Sydney and 80% compared to Darwin

The optimal tilt for solar panels in Hobart is 43° from flat

5 year payback period for panels at 43° tilt and facing north

6 year payback period for panels that are horizontal (flat) and 6 years for vertical (wall mounted)

8 year payback period for panels facing due east or due west

Flat rate of 24 c/kWh assumed and offpeak-peak rates of 14-30 c/kWh for TOU customers

VIC

VIC has relatively lower ROI's however solar still provides substantial savings

The optimal tilt for solar panels in Melbourne is 38° from flat

5 year payback period for panels at 38° tilt and facing north

6 year payback period for panels that are horizontal (flat) and 7 years for vertical (wall mounted)

8 year payback period for panels facing due east or due west

Flat rate of 24 c/kWh assumed and offpeak-peak rates of 16-30 c/kWh for TOU customers

WA

WA has good timing alignment between solar production and consumption

The optimal tilt for solar panels in Perth is 32° from flat

4 year payback period for panels at 32° tilt and facing north

5 year payback period for panels that are horizontal (flat) and 7 years for vertical (wall mounted)

6 year payback period for panels facing due east or due west

Flat rate of 25 c/kWh assumed and offpeak-peak rates of 13-49 c/kWh for TOU customers

Batteries

Why?

Sometimes required by energy providers to smooth demand, people may want them for energy independence purposes, or early adopters can desire them as a lifestyle choice.

While battery storage costs continue to fall, they currently remain uneconomical in the majority of residential setup cases.

Nevertheless, the ROI (Return On Investment) of solar + battery is still positive, but not as high as solar without battery.
Solar + battery

Higher (red) to lower (yellow) ROI

ROI's are highest in NT however, due to generous feed-in tariffs there, batteries are not recommended at this time.

High energy consumption and costs increases ROI's such as in TAS and SA.

Northern latitudes, where solar irradiance levels are more consistent throughout the year, tend to have high ROI's.

Inland areas tend to have higher ROI's where energy consumption is typically higher (higher air-con in the summer and heating in the winter).

Coastal areas tend to have lower ROI's due to increased cloud cover relative to inland regions.
Bigger is better

For solar with battery

For a 3 person household (for other setups checkout our free to use System-ROI tool), the following solar system sizes are optimal.

ACT Solar only: 4kW , Solar + Battery: 10kW

NSW Solar only: 3kW , Solar + Battery: 10kW

NT Solar only:10kW , Solar + Battery: 10kW

QLD Solar only: 2kW , Solar + Battery: 10kW

SA Solar only: 2kW , Solar + Battery: 6kW

TAS Solar only: 4kW , Solar + Battery: 10kW

VIC Solar only: 3kW , Solar + Battery: 10kW

WA Solar only: 3kW , Solar + Battery: 7kW
Batteries decrease IRR

(Yearly return)

The IRR's for a 3 person household (for other setups checkout our System-ROI tool) are:

ACT Solar only: 22% , Solar + Battery: 6%

NSW Solar only: 25% , Solar + Battery: 6%

NT Solar only: 31% , Solar + Battery: 13%

QLD Solar only: 28% , Solar + Battery: 6%

SA Solar only: 36% , Solar + Battery: 9%

TAS Solar only: 24% , Solar + Battery: 7%

VIC Solar only: 23% , Solar + Battery: 6%

WA Solar only: 29% , Solar + Battery: 6%
Offgrid potential

Battery storage

Batteries can help achieve energy independence from utility providers contributing to the democratisation of energy. With going off-grid, the tradeoff is between: i) additional savings from no longer having to pay for grid connection fees, and ii) excess electricity that is produced once the battery is full not being sold back into the grid. Our System-ROI tool provides insight into your potential to go offgrid.

Our vision

We have an exciting vision of a world-leading cheap and clean solar energy future for Australia

We believe there's never been more opportunity to empower energy consumers as the sector undergoes one of the most fundamental transformations Australia has experienced. Through detailed science, expert engineering and powerful modelling, the obsolete energy systems of today will be replaced with a sustainable system fit for the future. Our vision is ambitious yet grounded in already existing technologies. The innovation lies in combining robust proven solar photovoltaic technologies with engineering and financial expertise.

We believe the public is at the heart of driving the transformation and achieving our climate change goals

While government appetite for solar energy and battery storage has significantly accelerated particularly at state level, we still believe it is the public that is driving the shift. Energy consumers are demanding a more cost effective and sustainable low carbon energy future. The System-ROI tool aims to be the catalyst that empowers the public to accelerate this transition. The tool is underpinned by the best available science, our engineering know-how and our expertise in financial modelling.

We foresee a decentralised energy system where the consumer is back in control through solar production and smart consumption

Energy sector governance and decision making has traditionally been highly centralised and while this has served the community well for the past generations, this model is outdated. As the paradigm shifts towards a decentralised, smarter and more democratic energy sector, the change becomes self-reinforcing. Larger adoption of solar drives the cost of the technology down and as public relies less on inefficient centralised systems, these system cost increase. While battery storage continues to decrease in cost, the pivotal moment where a positive return on investment (ROI) is achieved has already been reached for many households. As our System-ROI tool demonstrates, this is especially true for household wishing to go off-grid and thereby avoiding increasingly expensive grid-connection costs. In addition, the increasing penetration of smart technologies is facilitating demand side management which allows consumers to maximise their profit on solar production.

Present

Cheap solar

New solar is already cheaper than new coal and gas. The sunk cost of power stations (already operating) makes coal still viable. However, 9 of Australia's 12 biggest operating coal stations are more than 30 years old. In fact, the average age of NEM coal power generators is 33 years and the average retirement age since 2012 has been 35! As coal stations get decommissioned, renewables are already the cheapest solution.
2020

Battery storage viable

Battery storage is already cost viable for customers looking to go off-grid thereby saving on initial grid connection capital costs and daily connection fees. However, for the majority of Australians, batteries by themselves are not currently cost efficient. While solar panel and battery systems result in cost savings compared to no solar, savings for solar panels only are higher. As competition increases between battery providers and economies of scale kick in, prices will continue to fall and become a viable alternative to grid connection.
2025

Smart demand technologies

Energy providers are taking advantage of the time difference between private solar production and consumption. Feed-in tariffs are typically 6-8 cents/kWh while consumption from the grid can be 10-40 cents/kWh depending on which State you live in and whether you're on ToU tariffs etc. As the cost of batteries fall, storage will result in cost savings for the consumer as well as reduce peak load demand from the grid which is a legitimate cost for energy providers. In addition, smart technologies which enable demand side management will optimise consumption times resulting in cost savings for the consumer as well as contributing to grid stability.
2030

Off-grid adoption

As solar penetration rates increase and consumers optimise demand to reduce their unit consumption from the grid, it is likely that utility providers will have to continue increasing fixed connection fees to maintain profitability levels. This will increase the attractiveness of going off-grid as well as not connecting to the grid in the first place. The majority of new builds will likely be legislated to have some renewable generation capacity and battery storage will often be more cost efficient rather than pay for the poles, wires and transformers to connect to the grid.
2040

Distributed networks

Ultimately a more efficient grid system will emerge. As profitability levels get eroded for energy providers, the cross-subsidisation in distribution costs between urban and regional areas will decrease with energy providers focusing on urban markets while distributed networks emerge in regional areas. Micro-grids facilitated by peer-to-peer technologies will emerge providing clean and cheap electricity for all Australian consumers.

Technical Detail

The algorithm determines local irradiance levels by taking hourly extra-terrestrial irradiance based on the distance from the sun to anywhere in Australia considering local elevation and accounting for irradiance losses through the atmosphere including from cloud cover.
The solar panel efficiency in converting the hourly irradiance into electrical energy considers local operating temperature and average wind speeds (which affect operating temperature). System losses such as DC to AC conversion are also included. Australia wide daily meteorological data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) and energy production parameters including surface irradiance, operating temperature, energy output are validated against measured CSIRO data .

Superior science saves

Research we carried out on CSIRO data shows that for identical solar irradiance levels, for each 10°C increase in solar panel operating temperatures, 5% less energy is produced.

Irradiance

SolarScience considers the daily variation due to earth-sun distance to determine the extra-terrestrial normal irradiance. The irradiance at the earth’s surface for any specific location is then calculated including air mass, pressure and turbidity using the Hay & Davies 1980 model.
An adjustment for cloud cover is made and the components of direct, diffuse and reflected irradiance are aggregated to determine the global irradiance hitting a solar panel based on the user specified azimuth (orientation from north) and tilt (angle from flat).

Meteorological data

Meteorological data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). 3 important, location specific, Australia wide datasets are used.
1. Daily total irradiance: this dataset facilitates the adjustment for cloud cover and is converted into an hourly dataset by fitting a sinusoid shape to the total daily irradiance and then integrating in hourly increments the shape area.
2. Daily minimum and maximum temperatures: similarly, an hourly temperature distribution is determined from the respective daily temperature ranges.
3. Monthly average wind speeds: average monthly wind speeds are assumed to be continuous for each hourly interval.

Temperature

In the production of solar energy (electricity), cloud cover can be thought of as a first order variable because it directly affects how much solar irradiance reaches a solar panel which determines how much energy is produced.
Temperature is a second order variable due to the fact that the parameter affects the efficiency at which a solar panel converts the solar irradiance into energy.
Wind is a third order variable as it affects the temperature at which panels operate which in turns affects their efficiency. Despite the cooling effect of wind, due to factors including conversion losses being dissipated as heat, panel operating temperature are typically higher than ambient temperature and this is considered in our calculation engine.

Validation CSIRO 2016

Outputs from our System-ROI engine are validated against CSIRO data. It’s important to note that this is not a calibration (I.e. parameters are not adjusted) and our outputs available nationally are extracted as modelled for the specific location of the solar panel and directly compared to CSIRO field measurements. Measurements have been provided for most of 2016 and the below charts are taken at random for the first few available days.
The levels of global irradiance striking the tilted panel are in general agreement and the System-ROI engine successfully captures days of low and high irradiance. The modelled ambient temperature is in very close agreement to measured values and the engine demonstrates the ability to account for the increased operating temperature of the panels. The resulting power outputs, which include system efficiency losses from converting DC to AC, follow a similar pattern to measured values. This provides confidence in the methodology and use of modelled scientific values in calculating financial returns.

Yearly Production and Consumption

The location specific meteorological data for the year 2016 is selected to derive the hourly outputs. 2016 was benchmarked against data for the last 10 years and considered a suitably representative year. Monthly total irradiance levels for 2016 are in line with long-term averages. Overall, only 2015 is closer to long-term averages but given the higher levels of data availability, 2016 is considered preferable. Daily irradiance totals are one of the most relevant parameters and values for 2016 are in line with long term averages providing justification for use of the 2016 meteorological data in solar energy production calculations.

Consumption data is generated using a variety of sources. Location specific consumption levels for 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 people households with and without gas connection and a pool is sourced from the Australian Government energy price comparison site . Hourly consumption is derived from typical residential consumption patterns in non-solar households yielding our ‘Normal’ curve. ‘Smart’ consumption is an idealised but realistic consumption pattern that involves transferring some of the evening consumption to solar production times (e.g. turning on the air-conditioning in the afternoon to pre-cool your house) as well as shifting hot water heating from night time (typically done in non-solar households to take advantage of cheaper off-peak rates) to day time.
The hourly balance between production and consumption is then either fed into the battery (if present and not full), fed into the grid at relevant feed-in tariffs or taken from grid at relevant flat/TOU rates .

Lifetime financial calculations

The 1 year hourly data is then repeated over 25 years with efficiency loss factors for panels and batteries applied. The difference between the hourly balance (profit or loss) from the grid and the cost of energy without solar is obtained. The cumulative savings (sum) over 25 years is then subtracted from initial system cost and a compound interest of 3% applied. System cost includes the government incentive which is assumed to be $700 per kW solar installed.

The engine iterates in 1kW increment for no battery, 5kWh battery, and 13.5kWh battery (equivalent to TESLA Powerwall 2). The system with the highest ROI is then considered optimal however the System-ROI tool provides cumulative savings, systems costs and payback periods for all setups so that the user can pick a system based on which factor they consider most important (cheapest system, fastest repayment or highest total savings).

Solar energy forecasting

Solar energy production is forecasted by combining the above described solar production engine with modelled weather data from the NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS). High/mid/low level clouds as well as temperature and wind data is fed into the engine.
Half-hourly AC energy production (kW) and daily total production (kWh) for the next 5 days are calculated and updated daily. Results are available anywhere in Australia at a 28km resolution and energy production for the Australian capital cities are shown in our E-Forecast tool. Values are per kW installed for north facing panels with an optimal tilt.

SolarScience continually strives to enhance its offering and maintain a state of the art platform. If you’d like to collaborate or find out more, contact us on info.solarscience@gmail.com

Local government collaboration

Integrate our scientific knowledge to Councils preferred platform

Our team possesses a strong suite of interdisciplinary skills ranging from natural environment model development, financial modelling and event forecasting. Our insights are open-source and we strive to collaborate with Councils which we believe are the authority best positioned to facilitate community level solar penetration. To that end, we encourage Councils to host our freely-available API/link to our website. Councils interested in development of modelling and mapping tools should also contact us.

Unlock the double dividend of energy cost savings while achieving carbon targets

Many Australian states have released ambitious renewable energy targets in line with Australia's Paris 2050 obligations. Current and anticipated legislation will require Councils to outline carbon mitigation strategies to achieve these targets. Through our powerful tool, SolarScience is in a unique position to assist councils in developing science based master plans guided by policy framework to increase the proportion of the energy they consume from solar. In addition to Councils taking a global leadership role in the effort to transition to renewable energy, the shift presents exciting opportunity to develop new sources of revenue such as distributed energy frameworks and local electricity trading.

Pre-empt future shock and strategically shift to distributed energy solutions

Regional Councils have some of the highest levels of opportunity to transform and benefit from solar energy. Conversely, regional areas will bear the brunt of not adapting as utility providers apply cost-based pricing to their large distribution networks. The transformation is already happening and through our System-ROI tool, we aim to accelerate solar adoption where it makes most economic sense. We recognise the interdependency between science, finance and policy. Through this combined lens we assist local government in determining the solar and battery storage size system that provide the optimal return on investment while maintaining grid inertia to smooth the intermittent nature of solar energy.

Contact us: info.solarscience@gmail.com

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Last updated: December 15, 2017

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